How the Ukraine War Stopped Arctic Brinkmanship

Abstract

Based on available data in an open-source environment, there was no military antagonism nor any provocative exercises between U.S. and Russian forces in the Arctic between 2022 and 2024. This contrasts the 2015–2021 period where the two rivals provoked each other outside the coast of Norway. Why have U.S. and Russian forces stopped antagonizing each other? Using brinkmanship as a theoretical model of explanation, this study finds the Ukraine War to be an Arctic tranquilizer. This is partly due to fear of nuclear escalation but also due to strategic necessity: neither U.S. nor Russian forces can afford an overstretch problématique in the contemporary international environment. As both protagonists forge self-imposed restraints, Russia’s 2022 invasion has inadvertently led to more Arctic stability.