On the Vulnerabilities of the Northern Sea Route’s Maritime Transportation System

Abstract

This study analyses several vulnerabilities in the maritime transportation system of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The vulnerabilities discussed are already impacting transport and logistics operations on the NSR. These vulnerabilities have greatly increased as a result of Western technological and economic sanctions on Russia and the subsequent departure of Western companies from Russia, where they were previously providers of critical supplies, logistics services, and investments. The cumulative impacts of these vulnerabilities will make the NSR maritime transportation system less efficient and reliable and more prone to failures, reducing operational and environmental standards, impacting safety and increasing the environmental impact of NSR shipping. Russia needs to find suitable replacements for Western technology and services. Chinese companies will likely try to fill the gap left by the departure of Western companies to promote the continuous production of Russian Arctic commodities for export to China.