More or Less Ice? Shipping in the Russian Arctic and the Role of Climate Change

Abstract

Melting sea ice has often been presented as a primary driver for development of Arctic shipping, but what role has it played for policies to develop the Northern Sea Route? It may look paradoxical that Russia has embarked on an ambitious icebreaker construction program, given climate change. In Russia, there have been contradictory assessments of further climate developments in the Arctic. Representatives of the nuclear icebreaker fleet have argued that a new cooling period will soon occur, whereas Russian climate science is dominated by unidirectional climate change. Nevertheless, there is agreement that more icebreakers are needed, since shipping activity is expected to increase, and an extended navigation season is an indisputable goal. Nuances in Russian climate science do not seem to play any role in policy planning for Arctic shipping. Shipping through the Arctic emits less greenhouse gases than navigation on conventional southerly routes, which may be used as an argument in favor of the Northern Sea Route. It is doubtful, though, that this will change priorities of international shipping companies, especially as long as international shipping is not subject to emissions standards. Many other considerations will have precedence. Obviously, Russia’s war in Ukraine and the ensuing international tension is affecting trade patterns and investments in the Russian Arctic. In this situation climate change plays less of a role in the development of shipping in the Russian Arctic. But even before the war climate change was less important than often assumed in the international literature.